Conservative

Pulliam: Obama’s low approval rating benefits GOP in midterm election

President Obama’s approval rating has averaged 42 percent in his second term, according to the most recent Gallup Daily tracking from Aug. 25.  Just a few weeks ago, President Obama’s approval rating was the lowest it had ever been, at 40 percent, according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll from Aug., 5.  With the midterm elections fast approaching, these low approval ratings will further propel the rising Republicans to take the Senate in November.

The GOP needs to take six seats away from the Democrats in order to win control of the Senate.  Ten seats will be highly contested, including Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, North Carolina and West Virginia.

On Aug. 4, FiveThirtyEight.com predicted that five out of the 10 competitive seats should swing Republican, including Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky and West Virginia, while only three for the Democrats, including Colorado, Iowa and Michigan.  With a tossup in right-leaning North Carolina, the six seat mark could easily be met.

With the President scoring so low with the American public, Republicans should have more than enough fodder to gain the necessary seats.  Obama is losing with the American people on a variety of issues, including the economy at 42 percent approval rating and foreign policy at a 36 percent approval rating.  Along with these poor presidential numbers, 64 percent of Americans are dissatisfied with the economy, 62 percent of Americans are dissatisfied with America’s role in the world and the American public prefers a Republican controlled Congress by a one point margin.        

Recent history suggests that unpopular presidents severely hamper their party’s performance in midterm elections.  Just look at 2010, when a Gallup Poll from Aug. 8 shows President Obama’s approval rating at 43 percent.  The Republicans gained six seats in the Senate and 63 seats in the House of Representatives.  Similarly, in 2006, according to a Gallup Poll from July 30 of that year, President George W. Bush had an approval rating of 40 percent, equal to Obama at the same time of his presidency.  The GOP ended up losing six seats, giving the Democrats a 51-49 control of the Senate.  



Some Democrats have tried to distance themselves from their party leader in order to increase their chances of victory.  For example, Alison Lundergran Grimes, the Democrat running against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, is fully against Obama’s new Environmental Protection Agency regulations that severely hamper the coal production and could cost jobs.  According to a June 2 “Washington Times” article, she stated that, “When I’m in the U.S. Senate, I will fiercely oppose the President’s attack on Kentucky’s coal industry because protecting our jobs will be my no. 1 priority.”

Despite Grimes’ efforts to disassociate herself with Obama, she is still losing to McConnell by a four point margin, according to a “CBS News/New York Times” poll released July 27.  At the end of the day, Grimes represents the same party as the President in a red state.  That situation will almost always be an uphill battle.

Similar to Grimes, Senator Mark Pryor, the incumbent from Arkansas, has distanced himself from President Obama as well.  According to a politico.com article from Aug. 19, 2013, he has stated that, “I think that President Obama has, in some ways, what you would think of as a hard-left agenda in various ways, and that agenda is not popular in our state.  And a lot of that agenda, I don’t support.”  Despite trying to cut ties from Obama, a “CBS News/New York Times” poll released July 27 shows Pryor at 45 percent, with the Republican challenger, Tom Cotton, leading at 49 percent.

Clearly, the main element of the 2014 midterm elections is Democrats trying to distance themselves from an unpopular president.  If Republicans are successful in linking Senate Democrats with the failed agenda of Obama, then 2014 will be a great year for the GOP.

Chris Pulliam is a sophomore policy studies and political science major.  His column appears weekly.  He can be reached at [email protected]





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