The Daily Orange predicts this weekend's Oscar winners
By: Matt Levin and Jared Diamond
Posted: 2/22/08
Best Actor
No Oscar category includes more big names this year than the Best Actor bunch. Daniel Day-Lewis, probably the biggest unknown of the group, stands out as the front-runner. In "There Will Be Blood," he appears as an oil-mad business tycoon with a magnificent mustache. It's an over-the-top performance, but one the critics loved.
Gray-haired heartthrob George Clooney has the best shot of upending Day-Lewis. As an ethically challenged lawyer, Clooney presents a unique spin on an old genre as the title character "Michael Clayton." Do-it-all Johnny Depp sounds great as a musically inclined, bloodthirsty barber. His singing is fine, and so is the acting, but nothing about the role is Oscar-worthy.
Tommy Lee Jones gave a strong performance in "In the Valley of Elah," but few saw the movie. Viggo Mortensen earned an unexpected, albeit deserved, nomination for his portrayal of a Russian mobster in "Eastern Promises."
Levin's who should win: Day-Lewis ("There Will Be Blood") - "I drink YOUR milkshake."
Levin's who will win: Day-Lewis
Diamond's who should win: Day-Lewis - Before I saw "There Will Be Blood," I thought Day-Lewis gave the performance of the decade as Bill the Butcher in "Gangs of New York." Now that's the second best.
Diamond's who will win: Day-Lewis
Best Supporting Actor
When "No Country for Old Men" was released, Javier Bardem was considered a lock for the Best Supporting Actor award, perhaps prematurely. Bardem maintains a slight edge over the competition, but this category showcases a tour-de-force of roles, making this one of the most intriguing races.
Tom Wilkinson has done the best job of closing the gap on Bardem with a paranoid, poignant performance that should stick with voters. Philip Seymour Hoffman also deserves a shot for his part as a cynical, yet savvy CIA agent managed to toe that line of comedy and melodrama in the witty "Charlie Wilson's War."
Hal Holbrook, the 82-year-old actor from "Into the Wild" is now the oldest Best Supporting Actor nominee in history. But he and Casey Affleck, who's featured in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," have their work cut out for them.
Levin's who should win: Hoffman ("Charlie Wilson's War") - Oscar voters never show any love for the funny guys. But Hoffman also conveys a dead-serious CIA mastermind in the same role. That's not easy to do.
Levin's who will win: Bardem ("No Country for Old Men")
Diamond's who should win: Bardem - No disrespect to Wilkinson and Hoffman, but they chose the wrong year. Anton Chigurh is the scariest villain since Hannibal Lecter.
Diamond's who will win: Bardem
Best Supporting Actress
A strong performance looks more impressive when the actor is playing a role not of his gender. And you know it's an award-winning performance when the character you're playing is a legendary music star. That's why Cate Blanchett will take home the Best Supporting Actress award for her role as Bob Dylan in "I'm Not There."
Tilda Swinton shows some impressive emotion as a businessperson in "Michael Clayton," willing to go to any lengths to save her company. However, she's too overshadowed by her male co-stars (George Clooney, Tom Wilkinson). At age 13, Saoirse Ronan, stole the show from leads Keira Knightley and James McAvoy in "Atonement." On the other side of the spectrum, 83-year-old Ruby Dee holds her own against Denzel Washington in a stirring scene in "American Gangster" - but her role lasts just five minutes.
Amy Ryan's role in "Gone Baby Gone" received too little mainstream attention for Ryan to stand a chance.
Levin's who should win: Blanchett ("I'm Not There") - No worries for Blanchett. She's up against some fairly weak competition.
Levin's who will win: Blanchett
Diamond's who should win: Ryan ("Gone Baby Gone") - Ryan has always been one of the top female character actors around, but she outdid herself here, playing a coked-up Boston mother whose 4-year-old was kidnapped.
Diamond's who will win: Blanchett
Best Picture
Joel and Ethan Coen's "No Country for Old Men" separated itself from the pack in a crowded field. It is arguably the Coen Brothers' best film since "Fargo," featuring stunning cinematography and a nightmare-inducing villain with an awful haircut.
Its biggest competition is probably Paul Thomas Anderson's epic, "There Will Be Blood," a monster of a picture about a greedy oil magnate at the turn of the century.
If there is a dark horse in this race, it's probably Tony Gilroy's "Michael Clayton," a film that quietly came and went during its initial October release, but surprised moviegoers by snagging seven Oscar nominations.
Jason Reitman's "Juno," this year's "Little Miss Sunshine" about a pregnant teenager, and Joe Wright's "Atonement," an adaptation of Ian McEwan's 2001 novel, round out the group.
Levin's who should win: "No Country for Old Men" - The Academy usually shied away from violence until last year's Best Picture victor "The Departed." Make it two blood-spattered winners in a row.
Levin's who will win: "No Country for Old Men"
Diamond's who should win: "No Country for Old Men" - "There Will Be Blood" is the movie we'll be talking about in 25 years, but "No Country for Old Men" is nearly perfect in its own way.
Diamond's who will win: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Director
Joel and Ethan Coen are definitely the favorites for their work with "No Country for Old Men," especially because neither of them has ever won an Oscar. Usually, Joel directs their movies while Ethan produces, but they decided to team up this time with excellent results.
But don't sleep on Julian Schnabel, who won the award at the Golden Globes and the Cannes Film Festival, for his extraordinary effort in "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly." It's an adaptation of Jean-Dominique Bauby's memoir of the same title. Bauby suffered a stroke at age 43, leaving him almost completely paralyzed. He dictated his book by blinking his left eye. Schnabel puts the viewer inside Bauby's head, letting us see the world the way he does.
Paul Thomas Anderson for "There Will Be Blood," Tony Gilroy for "Michael Clayton" and Jason Reitman for "Juno" have little chance.
Levin's who should win: The Coen Brothers - Honestly, I'm still upset they didn't win the award in 1998 with "The Big Lebowski."
Levin's who will win: The Coens
Diamond's who should win: Schnabel ("The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) - From the opening shot of this movie, Schnabel's direction is inspiring enough to believe in the absolute power of sheer human determination.
Diamond's who will win: The Coen Brothers ("No Country for Old Men")
Best Actress
No leading woman earned much attention in 2007, but Julie Christie is the favorite for her work in "Away From Her." Christie plays a woman suffering from Alzheimer's disease, as her condition drives her further and further away from her husband.
Though Christie is 66 years old, and voters tend to shy away from the older leads, perhaps paving the way for 20-year-old Ellen Page, who played the title role in "Juno." Nobody else could have given the performance as well as she did, but the Academy rarely votes young leads.
So who's left? Marion Cotillard, who played singer Edith Piaf, in the French biopic "La Vie En Rose." Cotillard devoured this role, portraying one of the most important people in French music history.
Laura Linney and Cate Blanchett for their work in "The Savages" and "Elizabeth: The Golden Age," respectively, are the final two nominees.
Levin's who should win: Linney ("The Savages") - One of the most underrated actresses out there, Linney merits some props for her nuanced performance.
Levin's who will win: Cotillard
Diamond's who should win: Cotillard ("La Vie En Rose") - Never before have I seen an actress so embody a once-living person.
Diamond's who will win: Christie ("Away From Her")
Other Important Works
Diablo Cody, a journalist-turned-stripper-turned-screenwriter, deserves all the attention she's received for her original screenplay for "Juno." … In any other year, there would be a legitimate race for Best Adapted Screenplay. Not this year. Joel and Ethan Coen's adaptation of Cormac McCarthy's novel, "No Country for Old Men," will win. … "Enchanted" has three songs up for the Best Original Song category. But if all three cancel each other out, that leaves "Falling Slowly," from the Irish folk-musical "Once," with a chance to snag an Oscar … "Atonement" rocks the best score as Dario Marianelli combines instruments with the sounds of frustrated pounding on a keyboard - highlighting the film's motif of writing … The geniuses at Pixar did it again with "Ratatouille," truly one of the best animated film of all time and a movie that could have been considered for Best Picture … Although "Atonement" is already famous for its long tracking shot at Dunkirk, "No Country for Old Men" deserves the Oscar for cinematography … Finally, Kevin O'Connell is up for his 20th (yes, 20th) Oscar. He holds the record for most nominations without a single win. This year, he's up for the Best Sound Mixing category for his work in "Transformers." They always say the 21st time's the charm. Godspeed, Kevin.
Sexiest Moment: "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" - Director Sidney Lumet is 83 years old, and he opens his movie with the rounded Philip Seymour Hoffman and Marisa Tomei, who looks even better with age, in a jarring graphic sex scene. Good for you, old man.
Trend of 2007: Unplanned pregnancy - First Seth Rogen impregnates Katherine Heigl in "Knocked Up," then Michael Cera knocks up Ellen Page in "Juno." Even the Europeans got into the mix with the Romanian drama, "4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days" about a young woman trying to receive an illegal abortion.
Best Line: "Tonight, we dine in Hell." ("300") - No movies make you feel worse about your body than this movie. And no line makes you feel like more of a pansy than hearing King Leonidas tell his Spartans where they'll be eating dinner.
Best Scene: "No Country for Old Men" - Anton Chigurh asks a lonely gas station attendant, "What's the most you've ever lost in a coin toss?" Quickly, everyone realizes it's a loaded question - it's a matter of life and death. Better choose wisely, "Friend-o."
Worst Movie to Actually Receive An Oscar Nomination: "Norbit" - Somehow, this was nominated for Best Makeup, though it's arguably the worst movie of the year. Say it with me, "Academy Award-nominee 'Norbit.'"
Biggest Disappointment: "Spider-Man 3" - The most anticipated film of the year turned into a long jumbled mess with three villains and a lot of confusion.
Best Character: McLovin from "Superbad" - McLovin, McLovin, McLovin. (We love you!)