All tangled up

Obama, McCain take different approaches to addressing relations with Iran

By: Jamie Munks

Posted: 9/10/08

In the mind of Syracuse University professor Mehrzad Boroujerdi, Iran needs to be a critical issue in this year's presidential race.

"Iran has become the Bermuda Triangle of successive U.S. administrations," said Boroujerdi, an Iranian-American who has lived in the United States for 30 years and who now directs the SU Middle Eastern Studies program.

Relations between Iran and the U.S. have been tense for decades with events such as the Iran hostage crisis, the Iran-Contra affair and the Iran-Iraq War. Tensions between the countries have worsened in recent years as President George W. Bush and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have clashed over nuclear policies and differing ideologies.

The current nuclear issue stems from a different understanding of the United Nations' Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which says a country has a right to create nuclear power for civil but not military uses.

Iran says it is within its rights, as outlined by the treaty. The U.N. Security Council, of which the U.S. is a member, has expressed concern because Iran hid a nuclear program for years. The worry is that Iran may be enriching uranium to a degree that could create a nuclear explosion.

Boroujerdi said that U.S. politics elsewhere in the Middle East, particularly in Iraq, are influencing both Iran's perceptions of the United States and Iran's status as a powerful nation in the Middle East.

"By toppling Saddam (Hussein), the U.S. has inadvertently strengthened Iran's position in the region," Boroujerdi said. "Iran has emerged as the regional power of the Persian Gulf."

The two presidential candidates, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), are trying to avoid following the pattern of previous administrations by conveying strong Iran policies in their campaigns.

Obama, the Democratic presidential candidate, has said he would consider sitting down with the Iranian president and is seeking engagement through something he calls "aggressive diplomacy."

"Why shouldn't we have the courage and confidence to talk to our enemies?" Obama said in a 2008 speech. "That's what strong countries do. That's what strong presidents do."

Republican candidate McCain has typically taken the view that the United States should not negotiate with Iran, but should instead use sanctions as a tool to stop Iran from engaging in any nuclear activity.

"Rather than sitting down unconditionally with the Iranian president or supreme leader in the hope that we can talk sense into them, we must create the real-world pressures that will peacefully but decisively change the path they are on," McCain said in a speech he made earlier this year. "Essential to this strategy is the U.N. Security Council, which should impose progressively tougher political and economic sanctions."

Boroujerdi said Obama might have an easier time connecting with Iranian people than McCain would.

"Obama, being an African-American, might have some in-roads in Iran," Boroujerdi said.

"Women and African-Americans were the first hostages released, because there are some feelings of mistreated minorities, and his administration might be able to tap into that," she said referring to the Iran hostage crisis of the 1970s.

Boroujerdi is less certain that McCain would be able to win over Iranian people.

"I don't think he can really take it anywhere since he's inheriting the Bush administration as the Republican candidate," he said.

To Jeffrey Stonecash, a campaign analysis professor, McCain represents the neo-conservative view, while Obama talks about multinational cooperation.

"It's very hard to have a conversation about Iran right now," Stonecash said. "It's the basic gut-level debate of the neo-cons versus the liberals. It won't move past that in this election."

Katy Soave, a senior international relations major, said she wants to see changes in the way Iranian issues are handled by the next administration.

"The U.S. needs to treat the situation diplomatically instead of being aggressive," Soave said. "If we treat it like Iraq, it will make the view of us worse. But Iran is doing things that they shouldn't be doing, so it does need to be dealt with. The next president should use multilateral channels and use the U.N., NATO and ambassadors."

The candidates have traded accusations about one another's Iran policies, with McCain calling Obama "reckless" for downplaying the threat of Iran. Obama has said that McCain will continue Bush policies towards Iran, which Obama says is what has made Iran a threat in the first place.

Goodwin Cooke, former SU foreign policy professor who once worked for the U.S. State Department, offered advice to the candidates.

"What they should really do is try some soft power diplomacy and cultural effusion," Cooke said. "It was done in China with a table tennis team: We should send over a second-rate soccer team to get clobbered by Iran and get the people to connect on a different level."

As the presidential campaigns carry on, the relations between the Iranian government and the current U.S. administration continue to evolve. President Bush recently sent a U.S. representative to meet with the Iranian nuclear negotiator, a possible sign that communication between the two governments may open more than it has been in decades.

This could potentially create a difficult situation for McCain, who doesn't favor negotiations with the Iranian government.

"McCain has to feel a little undermined," Stonecash said.

Both candidates have discussed Iran in the context of the close relationship between the United States and Israel. Each made a speech to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, about any possible threat that Iran poses to Israel, including a possible attack.

Boroujerdi said he doesn't think that there is much of a threat of conflict.

"It would be guilt by association if Israel attacks Iran, because they'd be attacking over Iraq which is U.S. dominated," he said. "I think the U.S. has realized that a war with Iran isn't in their best interest. They already have their hands full with Iraq and Afghanistan, and people must remember that Iran is bigger than those two put together in terms of geography and population."

Iran will hold presidential elections next summer, which could also go a long way in determining how relations will develop during the next U.S. president's term, Boroujerdi said.

Based on the U.S. presidential campaigns so far, Cooke predicted what would happen next term.

"President McCain would talk with European allies about how to ratchet up sanctions on Iran," he said. "President Obama would be more likely to send a negotiator."

jlmunks@syr.edu